It Ain’t Over Until It’s Over

We’re just a little over 24 hours away from Ortiz vs Shamrock 3 and while Ortiz is heavily favored to perform a three-peat, it ain’t over until it’s over.

So, what does Shamrock have to do to win?

First of all, he must stay off his back. If Ortiz takes Shamrock down, the fight could be over quickly. That’s because Ortiz is at his best when he’s “groundin’ and poundin’.” If Shamrock can avoid the takedowns and push the fight into the second and third rounds, Ortiz will get frustrated.

The second thing that Shamrock must do is to keep moving and punching. If he stands still Ortiz will take him down. If he doesn’t throw a lot of punches, Ortiz will take him down. [Heck, even if Shamrock is moving and sticking, Ortiz may still take him down.] By constantly changing his angles and throwing hands, Shamrock will force Ortiz to slow his attack. And of course open up the opportunity for Shamrock to land a knockout blow.

So, what does Ortiz have to do to win?

Ortiz needs to be careful when shooting for the takedown. Everyone is expecting Ortiz to go for the big slam, so if Shamrock has trained and is able to execute, Ortiz could get hammered coming in. Ortiz needs to be patient and pick his shots. If he takes Shamrock down, he needs to swing away as fast and as hard as possible. Shamrock can be rocked and will then take a few punches before responding. This could lead to another quick stoppage.

So how do I see the fight going?

I believe that Ortiz is going to win. Shamrock has a puncher’s chance, but odds are against it.

Still… I can’t wait to see how it all goes down because, as we all know, it ain’t over until it’s over.