Category: MMA

UFC 139 is live tonight on pay-per-view.  Here are my predictions…

• Ryan Bader (12-2-0) vs Jason Brilz (18-4-1) – This fight live on SPIKE!
  Prediction: Bader takes the win via stoppage
• Stephan Bonnar (13-7-0) vs Kyle Kingsbury (11-2-0)
  Prediction: Bonnar wins by decision
• Rick Story (13-4-0) vs Martin Kampmann (20-6-0)
  Prediction: Kampmann wins via decision

• Brian Bowles (10-1-0) vs Urijah Faber (25-4-0)
  Prediction: Faber wins by decision in what could be the fight of the night

• Wanderlei Silva (33-11-1) vs Cung Le (7-1-0)
  Prediction: Le wins via KO

• Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua (20-5-0) vs Dan Henderson (27-7-0)
  Prediction: Henderson via TKO.  Rua is the favorite, but I think Hendo at some point will catch Rua and it will be lights out.
  

Last night, in the first professional heavyweight title fight see live on a major “free-tv” station since 1985, Junior Dos Santos scored a major upset victory by KOing Cain Velasquez in the first round.  Not only did Dos Santos win the title but he also won the $65,000 KO of the Night bonus.  Not bad for a less than a minute and a half’s work.

Although I had picked Cain to win by TKO, as the fighters entered the cage, I looked at my son, Mike, and said, “I’ve got a feeling that this could be Dos Santos’ night.”  That doesn’t change the fact that I picked Cain and therefore was 0-1 for the night.  : (

Seeing the UFC on FOX was different in a cool, MMA is a legitimate big-time sport sort of way.  Maggie Hendricks at Yahoo Sports pretty much sums up my thoughts on the telecast.

Tonight at 9pm EST, live on FOX, Cain Velasquez [9-0] defends his UFC Heavyweight Title against the number one contender, Junior Dos Santos [13-1].  Although Velasquez is a 2-1 favorite, he’s returning to the octagon after a year long absence to allow his torn rotator cuff to heal [injured in his first round KO and complete domination of Brock Lesnar].

Do Santos will want to keep the battle a stand-up fight since he’s much better on his feet than grappling on the mat.  This could be dangerous for Dos Santos, because although Cain is the better wrestler, he’s also the bigger puncher.  Of course anything can happen when two talented fighters enter the cage.

My prediction is Cain will win via a TKO in a battle worthy of a title fight.

UFC 137 was last night and it turned out to be an interesting night of fights.  Let’s go right to my picks…

• Mirko Cro Cop vs. Roy Nelson –
  Prediction: Nelson wins by TKO.
  Result: Nelson won by TKO in round 3 making me 1-0 for the night.

• Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione
  Prediction: Mitrione wins by TKO.
  Result: Kongo won by unanimous decision making me 1-1 for the night.

• BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz
  Prediction: Diaz with an upset win.
  Result: Diaz won with a unanimous decision making me 2-1 for the night.

Final thoughts:

• Brandon Vera showed a lot of heart in earning a close but unanimous decision [29-28 on all 3 judge’s cards] over Elliott Marshall.  What’s even more impressive is Vera did it with a broken arm.  For the record, I’m not a huge Vera fan.

• Bart Palaszewski looked impressive in his KO victory over  Tyson Griffin.
  

• Donald Cerrone was even more impressive in his submission victory over the very tough Dennis Siver.  When is Cerrone going to get a title shot?

• A slimmed down Roy Nelson TKO’d  Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic right into retirement.  Does anyone really think we’ve seen the last of Cro Cop?  Do we now call him Roy Not As Big Country Nelson ?

• Cheick Kongo handled Matt Mitrione and that really surprised me.  I wonder why Meathead didn’t go after Kongo?  Too much respect?  Was he worried that Kongo would Pat Barry him?

• Nick Diaz whooped B.J. Penn right into retirement.  [Does anyone really think we’ve seen the last of The Prodigy?]  Diaz now has a title shot against GSP since Carlos Condit agreed to step aside.

  After his win last night, Diaz took the mic and called out GSP, saying GSP faked the injury that prevented him from fighting on the same card against Carlos Condit.  Diaz had been dogging GSP for some time now and apparently the strategy worked.  GSP asked Dana White for the chance to fight Diaz.  It looks like the fight will happen Super Bowl weekend.

  Love him or hate him, everyone has an opinion of Nick Diaz.  Perhaps Dana White said it best, “People love real fighters and this kid is a real fighter.”

UFC 137 is tonight.  Let’s go right to my picks…

• Mirko Cro Cop vs. Roy Nelson – Nelson wins by TKO.

• Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione – Mitrione wins by TKO.

• BJ Penn vs. Nick Diaz – The judges love Penn so I hope it doesn’t go to a decision.  Diaz with an upset win.

That’s 5’11”, Pat Barry getting ready to slam 6’11”, Stefan Struve, in just one of the four exciting bouts that were live last night on UFC on Versus 6.   Let’s take a look at the fights and my predictions.

• Matt Wiman (13-6) vs. Mac Danzig (20-8-1) This was a war earning fight of the night honors and an additional $65,000 for each fighter.  Both men were there to win and neither wanted to take a step backward.  At different times it seemed that either man could end it.
  Prediction: Wiman via decision.
  Result: Wiman via decision making me 1-0 for the night.

• Anthony Johnson (9-3) vs. Charlie Brenneman (14-2) 
  Prediction: Johnson via decision.
  Result: Johnson won and earned KO of the night [and the extra $65,000 that went with the honor] when the ref stopped the fight after a solid head kick knocked Brenneman to the mat.   There is no doubt that Brenneman was in trouble and had been wobbled by punches earlier, but when he landed on the mat, he was already part way up [and never out] when the ref signaled the end to the fight.  Still, the result made me 2-0 for the night.

• Pat Barry (6-3) vs. Stefan Struve (21-5) The tallest fighter in the UFC [Struve at 7 feet] took on one of the UFC’s shortest heavyweights [Barry at 5’11”] and it must have been difficult for each to get their range, because it was slow going at first.   When they finally did start to land, it looked like Barry was going to be able to wade in a land a KO punch.  Barry wobbled Struve and  that’s when Struve took things to the mat.  After a failed guillotine, Struve smoothly transitioned to a triangle choke.  Barry lifted the Struve high above his head and slammed the giant to the canvas.  Struve was able to hold on to the choke, and the slam simply made it tighter forcing Barry to tap.
  Prediction: Barry wins by KO.
  Result: Struve wins by submission making me 2-1 for the night.

• Dominick Cruz (18-1) vs Demetrious Johnson (10-1)  What a battle!  Cruz was forced to change his game plan in order to retain his title because Johnson was faster and better conditioned.  The final judges scores indicate a lopsided win for Cruz and although he did win every round in my opinion, Johnson was always in it.  At one point Johnson got out of a deep choke and back to his feet and immediately went on the attack again.   Johnson is a fighter and at some point will get another chance at the title.
  Prediction: Cruz wins by decision.
  Result: Cruz won by decision making me 3-1 for the night.

Tonight we have the UFC Live on Versus 6.  Let’s take a look at the fights and my predictions.

• Matt Wiman (13-6) vs. Mac Danzig (20-8-1) This is a rematch.  Wiman won their first fight back in June of last year.  Although it was a controversial stoppage, and a win for Wiman, I see no reason that Wiman won’t repeat.
  Prediction: Wiman via decision.

• Anthony Johnson (9-3) vs. Charlie Brenneman (14-2)
  Prediction: Johnson via decision.

• Pat Barry (6-3) vs. Stefan Struve (21-5) The tallest fighter in the UFC [Struve at 7 feet] takes on one of the UFC’s shortest heavyweights [Barry at 5’11”]. If Struve could use his reach to keep Barry at bay, he’d have a decent chance.  I don’t see that happening.
  Prediction: Barry wins by KO.

• Dominick Cruz (18-1) vs Demetrious Johnson (10-1)  Although this should be a good fight, I don’t see Johnson pulling out the win.
  Prediction: Cruz wins by decision.

UFC 135 was on pay-per-view last night. There were only two fights that I cared about.  Here are my predictions and the results:

• Josh Koscheck vs. Matt Hughes.
  Prediction: Koscheck wins via ref stoppage.
  Result: Koscheck won via first round KO making me 1-0 for the night.

• Jon Jones vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson
  Prediction: Jones by TKO.
  Result: Jones won by 4th round submission making me 2-0 for the night.

Final thoughts:

• Matt Hughes didn’t announce his retirement after the loss.  At 38,  and with two consecutive first round losses, retirement sounds like the right choice.  My guess is that in a few months Dana White will announce that Hughes has a new position in the UFC and will no longer fight.  The word retirement may not even be used.

• Jones already has his next title defense set.  He will defend against Rashad Evens.

UFC 135 is on pay-per-view tonight.  There’s really only two fights that I care about on this card, so this will be short and sweet.

• Josh Koscheck vs. Matt Hughes – There was a time when Matt Hughes was the best in his division… unfortunately that time has passed.  I don’t see this fight going the distance.
  Prediction: Koscheck wins via ref stoppage.

• Jon Jones vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson – This might be an interesting fight.  I think Rampage is going to go out and try to take it to Jones.  If Rampage does, he will have a slugger’s chance.
  Prediction: Jones by TKO.

I’ll have the results for you tomorrow.

UFC 134 results are in.  They say, “Two out of three ain’t bad” and that’s the best I could muster with my picks…

• Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami
  Thoughts: Okami was the last man to beat Silva. He should have rested on his laurels.
  Prediction: Silva by KO
  Result: Silva KO’d Okami in round 1

• Mauricio Rua vs. Forrest Griffin
  Thoughts: Griffin won the last time they met, but his prefight talk about not getting any better as a fighter has me concerned. I hope Griffin wins, but don’t feel confident about it so…
  Prediction: Rua via decision
  Result: Rua KO’d Griffin in round 1

• Brendan Schaub vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
  Thoughts: The fight doesn’t always go to the younger, the faster and the stronger, but that is the way to bet
• Prediction: Schaub via TKO
  Result: Nogueri KO’d Shaub in round 1

Final thoughts…

• My hats off to Nog for scoring the upset win.
• Forrest Griffin needs to get his head on straight if he’s going to continue fighting.  His prefight talk indicated that he thinks he’s stopped progressing.
• I want to see Silva fight Sonnen again.
• Next card: UFC Fight Night 25: Battle on the Bayou – Free on SPIKE

UFC 134 is tonight.  Let’s go right to my picks…

• Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami
  Thoughts: Okami was the last man to beat Silva.  He should have rested on his laurels.
  Prediction: Silva by KO

• Mauricio Rua vs. Forrest Griffin
  Thoughts: Griffin won the last time they met, but his prefight talk about not getting any better as a fighter has me concerned.  I hope Griffin wins, but don’t feel confident about it so…
  Prediction: Rua via decision

• Brendan Schaub vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
  Thoughts: The fight doesn’t always go to the younger, the faster and the stronger, but that is the way to bet
  Prediction: Schaub via TKO

Results tomorrow!

UFC 131 was last night and the card was a winner. Unfortunately for all the fighters the same could not be said.  Let’s look at my predictions and results:

• Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski (25-11) vs Mike “The Master of Disaster” Massenzio (11-4)
  Prediction: Soszynski wins by submission.
  Result: Soszynski won by unanimous decision making me 1-0 for the night.

• Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout (16-6) vs Yves Edwards (40-16) this fight will appear on SPIKE.
  Prediction: Stout via decision.
  Result: Stout via brutal first round KO making me 2-0 for the night.

The following bouts were all on the main card pay-per-view:

• Donald “The Cowboy” Cerrone (14-3) vs Vagner Rocha (6-1)
  Prediction: Cerrone wins by TKO.
  Result: Cerrone won by unanimous decision making me 3-0 for the night.

• Demian Maia (14-2) vs Mark “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Munoz (10-2)
  Prediction: Maia by decision.
  Result: Munoz by unanimous decision making me 3-1 for the night.

• Jon Olav Einemo (6-1) vs Dave “Pee-Wee” Herman (20-2)
  Prediction: Herman by TKO.
  Result: Herman by TKO in round 2 making me 4-1 for the night.

• Kenny “Ken-Flo” Florian (14-5) vs Diego Nunes (16-1)
  Prediction: Florian gets the win and a title shot.
  Result: Florian by unanimous decision making me 5-1 for the night.

• Junior “Cigano” dos Santos (12-1) vs Shane “The Engineer” Carwin (12-1)
  Prediction: Carwin in an upset win by TKO.
  Result: dos Santos by unanimous decision making me 5-2 for the night.

UFC 131 airs tonight.  There will be prelim fights on Facebook and Youtube.  SPIKE will also air other prelims and then the feature fights will appear on pay-per-view starting at 9pm EST.  Here are my predictions:

• Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski (25-11) vs Mike “The Master of Disaster” Massenzio (11-4) this fight will appear on Facebook or Youtube.
  Thoughts: Kryzsztof shouldn’t have much of a problem with Massenzio [who is coming in as a late replacement].
  Prediction: Soszynski wins by submission.

• Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout (16-6) vs Yves Edwards (40-16) this fight will appear on SPIKE.
  Thoughts: Stout has won five “Fight of the Night” awards and Edwards won’t be one to back down, so this bout could have fireworks.  Stout likes to stand and bang, so the question is: Will Edwards want to play that game or will he prefer to take Stout down and grind out a win?
  Prediction: Stout via decision.

The following bouts are all on the main card pay-per-view:

• Donald “The Cowboy” Cerrone (14-3) vs Vagner Rocha (6-1)
  Thoughts: This is Rocha’s UFC debut and it’s not an easy fight.  Rocha will want to take Cerrone down and work his Brazilian jiu-jitsu.  Cerrone will want to stand and kickbox.
  Prediction: Cerrone wins by TKO.

• Demian Maia (14-2) vs Mark “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Munoz (10-2)
  Thoughts: Two of the best fighters in their weight class face off in what should be a great strategic battle.
  Prediction: Maia by decision.

• Jon Olav Einemo (6-1) vs Dave “Pee-Wee” Herman (20-2)
  Thoughts: Herman should win easily enough.
  Prediction: Herman by TKO.

• Kenny “Ken-Flo” Florian (14-5) vs Diego Nunes (16-1)
  Thoughts: Florian is looking for a title shot if he gets past Nunes.
  Prediction: Florian gets the win and a title shot.

• Junior “Cigano” dos Santos (12-1) vs Shane “The Engineer” Carwin (12-1)
  Thoughts: I hate to see either of these guys loose, because they’re the cream of their weight division.  I’d say, that they’re the 2nd and 3rd best fighters in the Heavyweight division.  Santos is the favorite in what should be a slugfest.
  Prediction: Carwin in an upset win by TKO.

There was maybe one person who had a worse night that me when it came to UFC 130.  Who?  Oh, I’d say maybe Stefan Struve… maybe. Let’s see what made it so bad…

• Thiago Alves [18-7] vs. Rick Story [12-3]
  Prediction: Alves wins by decision
  Result: Story wins by unanimous decision making me 0-1 for the night.

• Jorge Santiago [23-8] vs. Brian Stann [10-3]
  Prediction: Stann wins by TKO.
  Result: Stann wins by TKO making me 1-1 for the night

• Travis Browne [10-0] vs. Stefan Struve [21-4]
  Prediction: Struve by TKO
  Result: Browne by KO in the first round making me 1-2 for the night

• Frank Mir [14-5] vs. Roy Nelson [15-5]
  Prediction: Mir by decision
  Result: Mir by decision making me 2-2 for the night

• Matt Hamill [10-2] vs. Quinton Jackson [31-8]
  Prediction: Hamill by decision.
  Result: Jackson by unanimous decision making me 2-3 for the night

Final Thoughts:

• Rick Story is a tough kid who just won’t quit!
• Brian Stann has a great future ahead of him.
• Stefan Struve got KO’d!
• I wish Mir could have ended the fight against Nelson.  Unfortunately, Nelson was tough enough to hang in but not in shape enough to make it really competitive.
• Hamill fought a dumb fight.  I thought he’d have tried to stay on the outside of Jackson and just keep kicking and punching.  Instead, Hamill continued to shoot for takedowns [which Jackson easily stuffed] and then would get clocked each time he tried to disengage.
• Bring on Caine vs Do Santos!

• Thiago Alves [18-7] vs. Rick Story [12-3] If Alves didn’t weaken himself making weight and he doesn’t have too much ring [mat] rust, he should do okay.
  Prediction: Alves wins by decision

• Jorge Santiago [23-8] vs. Brian Stann [10-3] Stann is a star on the rise and Santiago hasn’t fought in the UFC in five years.
  Prediction: Stann wins by TKO.

• Travis Browne [10-0] vs. Stefan Struve [21-4]  These are two giants!  Browne is 6’7″ and Struve is 6’11”.  If there’s a KO someone has a long way to fall.
  Prediction: Struve by TKO

• Frank Mir [14-5] vs. Roy Nelson [15-5]  This should be the main event.  I like both of these warriors, but Mir is my favorite fighter.  Nelson can take a punch and has a great ground game.  Mir is a submission artist but does he want to go to the ground with Big Country?
  Prediction: Mir by decision

• Matt Hamill [10-2] vs. Quinton Jackson [31-8]  Jackson has the experience and usually does well against wrestlers.  What worries me is that Rampage has been talking about quitting the fight game in a few years.  In my opinion that signals trouble.
  Prediction; Hamill by decision.